Summary¶
August CPI lands Friday 2026-09-11 — the last major print before the September FOMC. Markets price roughly a 60% chance of a September hike following strong August payrolls; the Cleveland Fed nowcast projects a hot 0.4% m/m August CPI. PPI Thursday feeds the same window.12
Market Read¶
Front-month index IV is bid into Friday; a hotter-than-nowcast print raises tail risk both directions (hawkish surprise = rate-path repricing). Classic event-vol geometry per skew and term structure: long front event premium, post-print IV crush.
Brainstorm Hooks¶
- No new premium-selling entries before Friday's print (event window; see risk function posture rules)
- Post-CPI IV crush favors buying event exposure via defined-risk structures only
- Resolved in decision log 2026-09-09 (condor entry deferred post-print)
References¶
- Markets View September Rate Hike As More Likely Than Not (Forbes, 2026-09-08): https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/08/markets-view-september-rate-hike-as-more-likely-than-not/
- The Fed Just Got 1 Big Reason to Raise Rates (Motley Fool, 2026-09-09): https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/09/fed-got-reason-to-raise-rates-cpi-could-be-another/