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Bundle Update Log

2026-09-09 (later)

  • Update (2026-09-17): VIX3M lookahead fixed (B4) — both term-ratio legs are now same-date prior closes from one FRED request (VIXCLS + VXVCLS); the Cboe live quote is gone. Correction to earlier entries: the 2026-09-11 calm-flat label and the 2026-09-17 "FIRST TRANSITION STATE" (calm-contango -> calm-flat) were artifacts of the bug — on point-in-time closes the ratios were 0.904 and 0.898, both contango, so the series is calm-contango-vrp+ from 09-09 through 09-17 with no transition. The journal records themselves are append-only and await corrects: entries.

  • Update: Amendment 2026-09-17/01 filed + review pass (15:59): edge_vs_rv retired (algebraically reduces to garch_forecast < rv_window; reproduced negative-EV PASS on blessed code) — replaced by layered gate (L1 ev_net>0 floor implemented in computations+attester as ev_gate; L2 VRP-size pending θ; L3 forecast-SE guard pending se_forecast; L4 conditional-vs-unconditional deferred to backtest harness). Review findings doc pulled into bundle (references/receipts/2026-09-17-review-findings.md) — sources[] repointed. REVIEW.md day-1 precedent corrected per amendment. Mechanical sweep of all files at 15:59. L1 activated early with human approval (human:yasu, recorded in decisions.jsonl; amendment status active-partial).

  • Update: PRIMARY HOST moved to hermes@192.168.0.104 (hermesagent): migration verified (journal continuity 9 records; ai-rig cleaned; today's round ran there with first TRANSITION state fired). Full bundle synced to new host (journal excluded - primary). Known minor gap: same-day snapshot re-runs append duplicate regime records (idempotency, unfixed).

  • Update: Periodic review cadence added to operating-rhythm (weekly/monthly/quarterly, journaled, fail-closed). Stale-tree advisory: ~/src/tomic on ai-rig is NOT the canonical wiki — external analyses must target ~/Documents/okf_bundles/options-system-wiki (synced both machines, 88-framework complete).
  • Update: Owner-review findings closed: capture_snapshot ambient env sourcing + hard-fail verified (commits on ai-rig); schedule.display fixed; regime bands single-sourced to tools/regime_config.json (both machines verified); pilot ledger corrected (append-only) re _covers().
  • Update: Cron env hardening v2.1 applied (prompt 6042 chars): ENV PREFLIGHT step 0 sources ~/.config/tastytrade.env and pins numpy before any tool call — closes the 9/16 round's transient auth/numpy gaps at the runner level. Next scheduled round 9/17 10:31 PT.
  • Update: First regime-gated Hermes round verified (2026-09-16): gate chain end-to-end success — REGIME RECORD led the report, event window + VRP-size correctly closed premium selling on FOMC day, book straddles held on positive EV_PHYS, 7/7 candidates NO-TRADE with consistent reasoning. Ops: bake tastytrade env sourcing + numpy into the cron runner env.
  • Update: Cron prompt v2 APPLIED to the Hermes jobs.json on ai-rig (owner-approved; schedule unchanged; backup kept). Tomorrow 10:31 PT is the first regime-gated round: ex-ante label + HAR forecast + VRP size precede all candidate eligibility, long-vol straddle management column encoded, standing kills versioned.
  • Update: Regime layer deployed to ai-rig (~/Documents/okf_bundles/options-system-wiki/, 102 files; Tiingo key provisioned 600; numpy present). First remote snapshot 2026-09-15 in 1.9s: calm-contango-vrp+ (term ratio 0.883 — back from flat), HAR forecast 14.42%, VRP_size +2.68 — below the proposed θ=3.0, after Friday's +3.29 above it: the amendment's threshold question is now live on real data. Hysteresis state seeded; confirmation needs 2 consecutive same labels. ai-rig journal becomes primary for daily runs; local exports merge into it.
  • Update: ev_ladder _covers() patch verified behaviorally on ai-rig (already committed eb34572; reconciliation corrected — inspection found the ledger stale, not the code). Selftest PASS; false-flag case clean; naked-call safety net intact.
  • Update: Hermes pilot reconciliation filed (80-system-design/hermes-pilot-reconciliation.md): the running ai-rig pilot (tastytrade-mcp live marks, ev_ladder dual-probability EV + Kelly, sizing.py, approval_server, Telegram delivery, round-state.json book) is ADOPTED as the TOMIC(mod) runtime per owner decision; wiki framework contributes regime layer, amendment governance, provenance, position greeks. Consolidations: one EV engine (ev_ladder), long-vol straddle archetypes join the mapping, Telegram approval flow is new work, ev_ladder _covers() bug flagged for immediate patch.
  • Update: V1 snapshot script built and run live (tools/har_forecast.py + regime_snapshot.py, portable/config-driven): fitted HAR-RV forecast replaces the EV placeholder input; first scripted regime record 2026-09-11 (calm-flat-vrp+, VRP_size +3.29 — at the proposed amendment threshold). Runbook: references/skills/run-snapshot.md. Day gap 9/10 visible in the journal (no run that day).
  • Update: Thorough self-review executed (3 reviewer lenses, 44 findings: 5 blockers, ~25 majors, minors) and ALL findings resolved by direct parent edits. Blockers: amendment evidence recast (rehearsal shows sign-insufficiency, NOT threshold filtering — VRP_size was 4.85 > proposed θ=3.0; placeholder-GARCH edge excluded from θ evidence; quorum downgraded to proposal-supporting rationale; References added); research brief sources[] completed for all footnote IDs + References section + retail/PFOF figures qualified; XIV timeline corrected from SEC-filed notice (trigger Feb 5 → notice Feb 6 → last trade Feb 20 → settlement Feb 21) with direct SEC/CNBC/Reuters sources; Cheng & Madhavan locator replaced with verified JOIM article page + SSRN 1539120; Tiingo verification receipt filed and REVIEW.md claim linked; EV-contract worked example replaced with the real rehearsal receipt (labeled illustrative, FAIL verdict shown). Contradictions resolved: naked-index premium removed from calm-regime mapping (never-rule authority); event-window policy unified under risk-function authority (operator-recorded exceptions only); execution stages 8-10 explicitly labeled external post-approval adapter outside framework scope; canonical gate order (Fit→EV→Risk→Proposal) declared authoritative with brainstorm-workflow composition mapping fixed; journal schema v1 (additive: mapping_version, risk_version, precedent_refs, verdict enum, amendment fields, outcome as source-of-truth); frozen numeric v0 risk-parameter table in risk-function; ETP-flow downgraded to unimplemented candidate; dismissal records defined (software-selloff item resolved); vix_term_ratio canonical metric; quorum paths harmonized. Content: TOMIC-model de-restated; verticals breakeven fixed per spread type; dispersion correlation labels corrected + BNP primer source; 0DTE gamma terminology/scaling fixed (~6.7×) + SSRN attenuation evidence added + GEX downgraded; 2024 case table labeled illustrative; BOCPD arXiv locator; Staunton flagged unverified; calendar-diagonal AC declares 3 fills; attester now enforces mandatory baseline outputs (negative-tested); butterfly rejects asymmetric wings (negative-tested). Calendar-convention finding dismissed as false positive after source check (TOMIC line 54 matches wiki). Final mechanical sweep: clean — frontmatter, links, strict JSONL, all 4 computations attest pass, negative tests correct.
  • Update: Added REVIEW.md — consolidated human-review document for the operating framework (six concepts, proof-of-work rehearsal, research base, open decisions awaiting sign-off). decisions.jsonl normalized to strict JSONL.
  • Update: Amendment 2026-09-09/01 filed (60-regimes/amendment-2026-09-09-vrp-size-threshold.md): VRP regime variable upgraded from sign to calibrated size threshold in mapping v1. Rule fully specified; activation gated on V1 fitted GARCH/HAR forecast, calibration backtest with stress set, and human approval. v0 in force until then. Mapping concept now carries an Amendment Log.
  • Update: Online research brief filed (95-inbox/2026-09-09-research-brief-recent-developments.md): Chicago Fed 2025-17 + Dew-Becker/Giglio show option alphas ~zero since ~2012 (VRP conditional, not gone) — vindicates regime-gated, baseline-tested edge design; HAR-RV remains the ML bar; 0DTE vol-attenuation evidence; retail >60% of volume; Cboe extended-hours options (Jul 2026); recommended books incl. Bennett free PDF. 3 framework amendment proposals logged in decisions.jsonl.
  • Update: Added extraction-map.md — provenance index linking all 58 wiki concepts back to their exact source pages in the four evidence bundles (generated from frontmatter sources[], link-verified).
  • Update: V0 dress rehearsal executed end-to-end on real data (SPX 7,673.52; VIX ~15.85; contango 0.89; VRP+): 2 inbox items filed, 1 attested EV run (iron condor: ev_net +12.73 but edge_vs_rv −5.75 → EV gate FAIL), 0 proposals (event window CPI 09-11 + FOMC), journal seeded (regime.jsonl, decisions.jsonl, 2026-09-09.md narrative). Key lesson: GARCH placeholder input materially moved the gate — fitted HAR/GARCH forecast is data-plumbing priority #1.
  • Creation: Authored the operating framework per the user's reframe — a from-scratch re-imagination of TOMIC for the 2026 market (draft now, no runner built): 88-framework/ (charter + five functions: intelligence, decision, risk, learning, operating-rhythm) and 96-journal/ (frozen-v0 JSONL accumulator schemas: regime/decision/outcome logs). Oracle-informed: subsumes rather than duplicates the existing loop concepts — automation-architecture.md re-scoped as implementation view, brainstorm-workflow.md re-scoped as the inner candidate path. Design tiers V0 (manual/cached, genuinely consumes news daily) → V1 (scripted snapshot) → V2 (automated ingestion) with fail-closed data rules, forced inbox resolution, precedent-cited consistency, and concordance-quorum (≥3 events) rule amendment.

2026-09-09

  • Update: Fix round 2 — AC↔code↔attester contract made mutually consistent (requiredness rv_window/garch_forecast: required: true in all AC frontmatters; 4-key receipt [computation, inputs, outputs, code_version] everywhere; attester resolves exact declared bundle-rooted computation path and rejects extra top-level keys); physical model upgraded to named real-world drift (equity-premium, r + 4% ERP) with exact lognormal-CDF probabilities (math.erf) replacing interval heuristics; py_vollib-first pricing with exact internal BSM fallback (placeholder pricing removed); comparable RV/GARCH baseline EVs (baseline_ev_rv, edge_vs_rv); calendar exit-default fix; butterfly 4-fill fee fix; text residuals fixed (short-calendar term-structure direction, 0DTE payoff sign, units-sleeve qualifier, footnote attribution, case-2020 lesson hedging, [^cboe] source entry, Cheng & Madhavan checkable locator). Legacy # Citations headings renamed # Source Notes. Final verification run by parent: 4/4 computations emit valid 4-key receipts, 4/4 attester verdicts pass, negative tests (missing required input, tampered code_version, extra top-level key) correctly rejected; full mechanical conformance sweep clean (frontmatter, types, statuses, links, paths, draft-References policy).
  • Update: Review cycle 2 — both original reviewers resumed via keyed session resume; verified all round-1 fixes; surfaced residual contract/code issues, resolved by fix round 2.
  • Update: Review cycle 1 — two read-only reviewers audited all 12 holders; verdict FAIL with 1 blocker (iron-condor payoff arithmetic) + majors (no-restatement violation in tomic-insurance-model, unsourced XSP claims, wrong 2018/2020 case facts, wrong citation venues, risk-neutral drift in EV stubs) + minors. Fix round 1 applied all 23 findings (3 parallel fixers: book-derived, modern, code).
  • Update: Build pass — 10 parallel delegate children (one per holder) wrote 48 concepts + 6 reference code/skill files from the four evidence bundles; 2 parent-authored concepts (brainstorm-workflow, source-intake-convention). Mechanical fixes: 9 files' internal links, 46 files' cross-bundle evidence pointers (../ → ../../), AC computation paths bundle-rooted.
  • Creation: Established options-system-wiki/ as the OKF v0.2 synthesis layer over the four evidence bundles (TOMIC, Natenberg, Hull, Passarelli), per council-reviewed plan (advisors: oracle run 2258a3a0, reviewer run 3ecfd1dc, workflow d4eef23e). 12 parent holders; conventions, EV contract, and news-intake policy in source.md.