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type: Concept title: "2026-09-09 — V0 Dress Rehearsal Day" description: First full run of the daily cycle at tier V0: real regime data, two inbox items, one attested EV run, zero proposals (EV edge test + event window) — the framework working as designed. tags: [journal, 2026-09-09, dress-rehearsal, v0] generated: { by: agent/pi-options-wiki-builder, at: 2026-09-09T19:03:40Z } status: draft sources: - id: rhythm resource: ../88-framework/operating-rhythm.md title: Operating rhythm

Summary

First end-to-end rehearsal of the seven-step cycle at tier V0. Outcome: zero proposals — by design. One candidate was generated, attested, and declined by the EV edge test; the event window independently deferred its entry.

Step Log

  1. Regime snapshot — SPX prior close 7,673.52 (FRED). VIX 15.85 (live tracker; official FRED print 14.32 lags to 09-03 — mixed as-of dates recorded). VIX/VIX3M ≈ 0.89 → contango. VRP strongly positive (IV proxy 15.9% vs 1m RV 9.5%). Label: calm-contango-vrp+. Data-missing flags: none blocking; ETP flow state unmonitored at V0.
  2. Intake — 2 items filed: CPI Friday / FOMC odds (catalyst), SPX software selloff (watchlist).
  3. Market read — calm tape, wide VRP, but Friday CPI + PPI Thursday + FOMC (~60% hike odds priced) put the market inside an event window; front IV bid into Friday.
  4. Candidates + EV — one candidate from the mapping: SPX 45-DTE iron condor (7150/7275 puts, 8075/8200 calls). Attested run receipt: ev_net +12.73 but edge_vs_rv −5.75 → EV gate FAIL. Attestation verdict: pass (the run is faithful; the trade is not attractive).
  5. Risk gates — not reached (declined at EV). Note: the event-window posture rule would independently have deferred entry.
  6. Proposals — none. A zero-proposal day is valid.
  7. Journal — this narrative + regime.jsonl (1 record) + decisions.jsonl (2 records: rejected, watchlist).

V0 Lessons (Candidate Inputs for Framework Amendments)

  1. The edge test bites: naive premium-selling logic (positive ev_net, wide VRP) says take the condor; the RV/GARCH baseline comparison says no. This is the EV contract doing its job — and it contradicts what TOMIC-2012 would likely have done. Worth a mapping note once the GARCH input is real.
  2. The GARCH placeholder materially moved the gate: garch_forecast = 0.11 was a HAR-style guess, not a fitted model. Sensitivity: the decline is driven by forecast > realized. Data-plumbing priority #1: a real fitted HAR/GARCH forecast, otherwise Gate 2 is judgment dressed as computation.
  3. Mixed as-of dates across free sources (FRED lag, tracker live, Google Finance stale) — V1's single scripted snapshot with fixed source priority would eliminate this class of ambiguity.
  4. Precedent check: first day — no prior precedent exists; recorded as such.

Human Review

No proposals → nothing to approve. Decision-log verdicts (rejected, watchlist) stand unless the operator overrides with a recorded reason.

References